Scaling Ad Spend Without Sacrificing Margin

A transparent model of what happens when budget rises while CPC increases and conversion rate weakens.

By Dynurha · 21 August 2026

SHORT ANSWER

Scaling is not automatically healthy when revenue rises. In this scenario, budget increases 50 percent and revenue grows 22 percent, but contribution after ad spend falls 13 percent because CPC rises and conversion rate weakens.

Outcome snapshot

+50%

Ad budget

+22%

Revenue

+23%

CAC

-13%

Contribution

Starting context

The model starts with a Rp10m budget, Rp2,000 CPC, 2 percent conversion rate, Rp300,000 AOV, and 40 percent COGS.

The scaling scenario raises budget to Rp15m, CPC to Rp2,200, and lowers conversion rate to 1.8 percent.

What I did

01
Calculate clicks from budget and CPC.
02
Calculate orders from clicks and conversion rate.
03
Calculate revenue from orders and AOV.
04
Subtract COGS and ad spend to measure contribution.

What changed

Orders rise from 100 to 122 and revenue from Rp30m to Rp36.6m.

CAC worsens from Rp100,000 to about Rp122,951 while contribution falls from Rp8m to Rp6.96m.

Evidence limits

• This is a simulation, not client performance.
• The model excludes shipping subsidies, payment fees, returns, tax, payroll, and overhead.